失败学习对企业绩效的影响机制研究

已有文献认为失败学习对企业绩效具有重要作用，但失败学习通过何种途径促进企业绩效提升的研究并不完善。基于失败学习理论，引入资源拼凑和机会识别作为中介变量，构建失败学习影响企业绩效的多路径模型，探索失败学习对企业绩效的驱动路径及内在机理。实证结果表明：失败学习对企业绩效具有显著积极作用，资源拼凑和机会识别分别在失败学习与企业绩效之间起中介作用，资源拼凑和机会识别在失败学习对企业绩效驱动过程中存在链式中介作用，战略柔性能够强化资源拼凑与企业绩效之间的关系，并正向调节资源拼凑的中介作用。研究结论拓展了失败学习对企业绩效的影响路径，对企业复苏和成长具有重要启示。     

The long overhang of bad decisions in agro-industrial development: Sugar and tomato paste in Ghana

In theory, learning from past mistakes should result in adapted and improved development policy. However policy learning can be difficult to achieve, and the link between learning and policy change is neither direct nor immediate. In this study we look at learning in agro-industrial policy in Ghana, by tracing the interest in sugar production and tomato processing over six decades. Specifically we ask why four failed factories established in the early 1960s have continued to play central roles in both policy and public discourse. Using policy documents, academic material, and the popular press, we show that Ghana’s policy focus on sugar production and tomato processing has endured, despite the fact that the factories were misconceived, poorly sited, ill-equipped and poorly managed. Indeed, the political ideas that underpinned the establishment of these factories in the early days of independence can be seen in the current One District, One Factory policy. We suggest that it is their symbolic and political value, not their economic value, which keeps the discussion around these factories alive. Even when shut down, they are a physical manifestation of historic commitments by the state, and as such they guarantee the attention of politicians, and hold out hope of a next re-launch. Unfortunately as long as the factories continue to be incorporated into each new generation of agro-industrial policy, it is difficult for any alternatives to gain traction. This analysis highlights the very long overhang of bad decisions, particularly when they are associated with physical infrastructure. Learning from past mistakes will only happen if the short-term political cost of turning policy learning into policy action can be overcome.     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

知识型员工双重社会网络对企业创新绩效作用机制研究

基于企业基础资源观和组织学习理论，从知识型员工个人和组织社会网络两个方面构建知识型员工双重社会网络影响企业创新绩效的理论模型，分析知识共享、组织学习及资源整合在员工双重社会网络对企业创新绩效影响机制中的作用。结果表明：知识型员工双重社会网络对科技型企业创新绩效的作用路径有3条，资源获取与整合、知识共享与学习及员工动态创新能力分别在其中发挥中介作用；在不同类型组织文化环境中，知识型员工双重社会网络对企业创新绩效的作用特征、作用重点以及作用机制存在显著差异，内部整合维度主要通过知识共享和组织学习影响企业创新绩效，外部适应维度主要通过隐性知识传播和资源整合影响企业创新绩效。     

A variety-increasing view of the development of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan

The development of the semiconductor industry depends on its interactions with the environment. Developing countries face more constraints and the environmental interactions seem more complicated. The development process of the semiconductor industry could be better understood with regard to the interactions and social changes. This study proposes a variety-increasing viewpoint based on the concepts of variety increasing and internal learning to analyze the developmental experience of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan. The result shows that the development of Taiwanese semiconductor industry is a continuous variety-increasing process, which is achieved by searching and establishing successful associations in an increasingly wider and complex environment. Implications on the ongoing development of Taiwan's semiconductor industry and the development experiences of other East Asian countries are discussed.     

CALL及其制约因素刍议

当今世界,计算机已被广泛应用于语言教学。计算机辅助语言教学经历了行为主义的计算机辅助语言教学、交际的计算机辅助语言教学和整体的计算机辅助语言教学三个主要阶段。运用计算机辅助语言教学有助于激发学生的学习动机,为学生提供真实的学习材料,促进学生进行更广泛的相互交流活动,提高学生的个体化学习能力,鼓励学生从单一信息源中脱离出来,促进全球化的共识等。但是,计算机辅助语言教学也有其制约因素,文章从财政困难、计算机软件和硬件的可利用性、技术与理论方面的障碍以及技术的接受等四个方面对此进行了阐述。     

Heterogeneity in Economics

This paper argues that heterogeneity of agents’ characteristics plays a fundamental role in the economy and should do so in economic models. Three aspects are considered. Firstly the notion that assuming heterogeneity was a solution to the problem posed by the results of Sonnenschein Mantel and Debreu is considered and it is suggested that the more pragmatic approach adopted by Hildenbrand is likely to be more productive. Next the role of adaptation and evolution which necessarily involve variety or heterogeneity is examined. It is suggested that heterogeneity will persist since agents will only slowly learn to adapt and that in the meantime the environment will change. Lastly the role of heterogeneity in financial markets is examined. It is suggested that heterogeneous and varying expectations may account for many of the stylised facts which do not seem to be consistent with the standard financial markets model.“Variety is the spice of life”     

组织能力与战略管理研究:一个理论综述

如何获取持续竞争优势是企业战略管理研究中不可回避的问题。20世纪末发展的企业能力理论试图弥补传统战略管理和竞争优势理论的不足,着重企业内部资源分析,阐述作为一种特殊资源的组织能力与企业持续竞争优势之间的关系。并通过对组织能力的性质和构成分析,说明组织学习与组织能力培养之间的内在理路。     

机械零件刚度的模糊可靠性设计方法

介绍了机械零件变形分布参数的确定和刚度隶属函数的选择方法，导出了零件刚度模糊可靠度的计算公式，并给出了应用实例。